MATHS & STATISTICS / PROBABILITY

Probability calculator for two independent events

Combine the probabilities of two independent events: both happening, at least one, exactly one, neither, and each not happening.

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YOUR RESULT

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WORKED EXAMPLE

Probability calculator for two independent events: a worked example

With probability of a (%) 50, probability of b (%) 30, the both a and b is 15%.

Inputs
Probability of A (%)50
Probability of B (%)30
Results
Both A and B15%
A or B (at least one)65%
Not A50%
Not B70%
Exactly one of A or B50%
Neither A nor B35%
THE METHOD

How it works

Enter each event's probability as a percentage. Two events are independent when one happening does not change the chance of the other, like two coin tosses or two dice. The calculator applies the multiplication rule and the addition rule to give every combined outcome. If the events affect each other, these results do not apply.

FormulaP(A and B) = P(A) × P(B). P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A)P(B). P(not A) = 1 − P(A).
ASSUMPTIONS

Assumptions and limits

  • Events A and B are independent.
  • Probabilities are entered and shown as percentages from 0 to 100.
  • Exactly one means A or B but not both.
  • Results are estimates based on the inputs and assumptions on this page, not professional advice.
  • Try this: use “Save scenario A”, change one input and compare the two results side by side.
QUESTIONS

Frequently asked questions

How is the result of the “Probability calculator for two independent events” calculated?

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B). P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A)P(B). P(not A) = 1 − P(A). Enter each event's probability as a percentage. Two events are independent when one happening does not change the chance of the other, like two coin tosses or two dice. The calculator applies the multiplication rule and the addition rule to give every combined outcome. If the events affect each other, these results do not apply.

What does the worked example show?

With probability of a (%) 50, probability of b (%) 30, the both a and b is 15%. A or B (at least one): 65%; Not A: 50%; Not B: 70%; Exactly one of A or B: 50%; Neither A nor B: 35%.

What assumptions and limits apply?

This is an estimate based on the inputs and assumptions shown on this page, not professional advice. Check anything with financial, health or safety consequences independently.

Is my data private?

Yes. Calculations run in your browser and your numbers are not sent to a server. A share link contains the inputs you choose to share, so check it before sending it to anyone.

What is the chance of two heads in two coin tosses?

Each toss has a 50% chance, and the tosses are independent, so P(both) = 0.5 × 0.5 = 25%.

Why do I subtract P(A)P(B) for “A or B”?

Adding P(A) and P(B) counts the outcomes where both happen twice. Subtracting the overlap once gives the true chance that at least one happens.

What is the probability of at least one success in several tries?

Find the chance of no successes and subtract it from 1. With a 30% chance per try, three independent tries give 1 − 0.7³ = 65.7%.

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